Oxford Economics is a world leader in high quality, quantitative analysis and practical, evidence-based business and public policy advice. We help our clients to understand what the application of careful economic analysis reveals about the opportunities, challenges and strategic choices they face.
Our consultancy services include:
Applying cutting-edge economic and quantitative tools to our analysis, we draw on the latest research, an investment in global data collection and a suite of time-tested models to assemble the facts and findings for your decisions. We help you interpret this knowledge and present you with clear messages in clear language.
Economic Impact Studies
Oxford Economics' impact studies assess the contribution of a particular sector, company or investment project to the economy as a whole, at a regional, national and sometimes global level. Our economic impact studies typically quantify the total economic impact via four channels:
- Direct impacts - such as the employment, output and fiscal contributions generated by the sector/company itself
- Indirect impacts - employment and output supported by the sector/company via purchases from its supply chain
- Induced impacts - employment and output supported by the spending of those employed directly or indirectly by the sector/company
- Catalytic or spillover impacts - the extent to which the activities of the relevant sector/company contribute to improved productivity and performance in other sectors of the economy. Oxford Economics is at the frontier of global research into these catalytic economic impacts in a number of sectors, particularly aerospace and aviation.
Recent economic impact studies include:
- The impact of tourism to the UK in conjunction with Deloitte on behalf of Visit Britain and the Tourism Alliance (view study)
- The impact of the introduction of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on the cost of capital on behalf of PWC (view study)
- A study of the economic factors driving the cost and availability of financing for the water industry for Severn Trent (view study)
- The economic impact of the financial crisis on the City of London for Savills, the UK property firm.(view study)
- The impact that Aviation has on society, the environment and the world economy for Airbus (view study)
- A study of the economic case of investing in the UK defence industry (view study)
- A study of the economic value of Australia's Great Barrier Reef and the cost of coral bleaching for the Great Barrier Reef Foundation (view study) (view summary slides)
- In cooperation with KPMG Advisory Practice, a study investigating the economic impact of the golf industry in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (view study)
- An assessment of the economic and social contribution of the air transport industry to the global economy, for ATAG (view study)
- A study on the economic impact of ports for British Ports Association (BPA) and United Kingdom Major Ports Group Limited (UKMPG) (view study)
- The economic contribution of UK shipping industry for the Chamber of Shipping (view study)
- A study on the economic importance of BAE SYSTEMS for the UK economy and the implications for the way in which the government approaches defence procurement (view study)
- The economic contribution of the UK Games Development Industry (view study)
- A study of the economic contribution of the Finance and Leasing Association's (FLA) members (which include firms providing asset finance, consumer credit and motor finance) to the UK economy.(view study)
- The economic contribution of the UK film industry - study for UK Film Council and Pinewood Shepperton plc in the context of the recent review of fiscal support in the UK (view study)
- A report that investigates the economic impact of the independent research and technology sector on the UK economy for AIRTO (The Association of Independent Research and Technology Organisations) (view study)
- Analysis of the economic contribution made by the express parcels delivery industry, and the impact on the efficient operation of its customers of constraints on the expansion of express parcels services (eg restrictions on night flights). This series of studies was prepared for a consortium including FedEx, UPS, TNT and DHL, and includes analysis of the importance of the industry for the UK, for Italy, for Europe as a whole and globally (view study)
- A detailed assessment of the economic and social impact of Tomorrow's People, a specialist charitable trust that has a 20 year track-record of helping people out of long-term unemployment, welfare dependence or homelessness into jobs and self-sufficiency (view study)
- A detailed study of the economic impact of the development of Crossrail on both the London and UK economies, including the development of a fully articulated system for modelling linkages between commuting patterns, the property market and employment in the City, Westminster, Tower Hamlets and the rest of London.
As well as providing written reports, we are also experienced in presenting our research to governments, the media and other organisations, and supporting our clients' representations to decision-makers.
Scenario Analysis
Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of global economic scenarios and risks. Our Global Macro and Industry Model provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:
- How hard would the credit crunch hit the economy?
- What would be the implications of oil prices hitting $100 pb?
- How would a revaluation of the Chinese currency affect the world economy?
- How damaging would an Avian flu epidemic be?
- Is the US housing market overvalued and what if it crashes?
- What would the implications of trade liberalisation be for the EU?
As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business. Examples of such bespoke research include:
- Modeling long-term scenarios for energy markets around the world for Shell (view study)
- What-if analysis on how Asia would fare under various economic scenarios for the Asian Development Bank (view study)
- Analysis of the implications of trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU - for Open Europe (view study)
- Assessing the impact and cost of Avian flu across the Asian economies - for the Asian Development Bank (view study)
- An assessment of the effects on the US economy of trade and investment with China - for the US-China Business Council (view study)
- Quantifying the economic cost of a ban on night-flights on the express industry and UK economy - for Association of International Couriers and Express Services (view study)
- Analysing the impact of the London terrorist attacks on the tourism sector - for the World Travel and Tourism Council (view study)
- An assessment of the implications for the EU economy of measures to liberalise mortgage and consumer credit markets, on behalf of the European Commission
Macro Policy Assessments
Our Global Macro Model is the most widely used commercial model in the world, with clients including the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and a wide range of government departments and central banks. It provides an ideal framework for assessing the economic impact of different macroeconomic policy proposals, both at a national and global level. And, combined with the experience of our economists, it also ensures that our macro policy assessments have a high degree of credibility and authority.
Recent studies include:
- A study into long-term labour trends in Derry and how to influence them through public policy. In conjunction with PWC and Regional Forecasts and financed by the City of Derry and the European Commission(view study)
- Modeling the potential impact of the Australian Stimulus Package with the Institute of Public Affairs and RMIT University (view study)
- An assessment of the impact on the US economy of trade and investment with China for the US-China Business Council (view study)
- Analysis of the implications of trade liberalisation and CAP reform in the EU, looking at a range of alternative liberalisation scenarios (eg multilateral, bilateral, unilateral, with/without CAP reform) on behalf of Open Europe (view study)
- An assessment of the impact on the European and UK economies of different instruments designed to reduce carbon emissions for the Engineering Employers Federation (view study)
- Analysis of the implications of reform to UK housing finance using the OEF and HM Treasury models, for the Miles Review of the UK mortgage market commissioned by the Chancellor of the Exchequer (view study)
- An assessment of the implications for the EU economy of measures to liberalise mortgage and consumer credit markets, on behalf of the European Commission
Tax Analysis
Oxford Economics advises both Ministries of Finance and blue-chip companies on a range of fiscal policy issues. Areas of particular expertise include:
- The consequences of the Proposed Increase in the Minimum Excise Duty Rates for Beer. A report for The Brewers of Europe by Oxford Economics (view study)
- Analysis of the impact of tax reforms for different sectors and households
- Support for businesses and trade bodies in preparing representations to government on tax issues
- Developing models for forecasting macroeconomic prospects and their implications for tax revenues and budget setting
- Design of excise tax systems and dealing with problems of fraud, smuggling and bootlegging
- Advice on the appropriate regime for maximising returns from oil and other resources
Examples of recent projects on which we have advised include:
- The economic contribution of the UK film industry - in the context of the recent review of fiscal support in the UK (view study)
- Addressing the EU cigarette excise regime review 2006 - identifying issues facing the new accession states in implementing the EU's cigarette tax rules (view study)
- The affordability of cigarettes in ASEAN countries: - implications for tax policies - paper presented to International Tax and Investment Center Asian tax conference (view study)
- Petroleum and Iraq's future: fiscal options and challenges - study with International Tax and Investment Center , Centre for Global Energy Studies and Transborder (view study)
- The consequences of the proposed increase in the minimum excise duty rates for beer - report for Brewers of Europe (view study)
Model Building
Our extensive experience in building and maintaining economic models provides an ideal base to help clients develop their own models, whether at a macro, sectoral, regional or product-market level. Recent projects have included:
- Building a model for forecasting macroeconomic developments and tax revenues on behalf of the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance, and training its staff in how to maintain and update the model, and how to use it to inform the policy process. We have recently undertaken similar projects in Egypt, Turkey and Slovakia.
- Developing a detailed model of energy use at a sector level to analyse the impact of a variety of policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions for The Carbon Trust.
- Building a system for identifying risk to pharmaceutical sales across 12 markets and whether those risks reflects macro developments, the state of government finances, issues with healthcare budgets or pharma-specific factors, for a major international pharmaceutical company.
- Developing a system for forecasting sales of forklift trucks in the six main European markets, for a major manufacturer
Our models are delivered in user-friendly format, with the necessary training and support to ensure the client understands the model and how to apply it to address practical business and policy questions. In addition, Oxford Economics is able to provide continuing support in running and maintaining such models.
Product Market Forecasting
Our forecasts of the global economy at a macro and sector level provide an ideal framework for developing forecasts and scenarios for particular product markets.
Oxford Economics provides detailed forecasts for a wide range of markets, including tourism, pharmaceuticals, shipping, machine tools, forklift trucks, alcoholic beverages, newspaper advertising and IT. Such projects typically involve the following steps:
- Identifying the key macroeconomic and industrial sector drivers for a particular product market
- Using statistical techniques to quantify the relationships between those drivers and the relevant product market metrics (e.g. sales, profits, investment), taking into account any leads/lags and tipping points
- Building those relationships into a model that links to the drivers from our Global Macro and Sectoral Models
- Developing a detailed forecast and a set of scenarios that illustrate the implications of key risks that could impact on the market
Our analysis often extends further - for example, identifying the key drivers of a company's market share or assessing the impact that its advertising programme is having on its sales performance. Moreover, such models can be used to advise on pricing policy and for setting targets for sales teams, as well as informing production and investment planning.
Regional Analysis
Oxford Economics has considerable experience in analysing regional economic prospects and the impact of regional policy on economic performance. Examples of recent studies include:
- Forecasts for sales of consumer goods at a very local level (output areas and postal sectors) to support store location decisions and companies' representations at planning inquiries (provided in conjunction with MapInfo)
- A study (with Regional Forecasts and Arup) looking at the pattern of regional development in the UK and what England's regional economies might look like in 2030 (view study)
- Assessing London's place in the UK economy, including its impact on UK public finances for the City of London (view study)
- Quantifying the cost of transport delays to the London economy, on behalf of the GLA (view study)
- A detailed study of the economic impact of the development of Crossrail on both the London and UK economies, including the development of a fully articulated system for modelling linkages between commuting patterns, the property market and employment in the City, Westminster, Tower Hamlets and the rest of London.
- A detailed assessment of the interactions between economic activity, migration and housing in Manchester and Salford for the area's housing market renewal partnership
- An assessment of economic development in the three main cities of the East Midlands (Nottingham, Leicester and Derby), involving forecasts of economic trends and advising on how the cities might cooperate to raise their levels of economic prosperity
- The identification and collation of baseline indicators to inform economic and broader policy decisions for the West Midlands and its sub-regions, particularly towards regeneration zones
In addition, Oxford Economics has prepared a number of detailed studies assessing the contribution of tourism to regional economic performance (e.g. in the Algarve, the Canary Islands and Valencia).
Stress Testing for Lenders
Stress testing is a valuable risk management tool for banks and building societies. It helps inform risk managers how their institutions’ earnings, profitability and capital adequacy are likely to alter under the different economic circumstances that may occur in the future. Moreover, it will shortly be part of the regulatory framework. Oxford Economics has a suite of rigourous, quantitative models (UK regional, industrial, and global) that provide an ideal framework with which we can explore issues such as:
- How much will default rates increase in the recession?
- How far will commercial and residential property prices fall?
- When will the West Midlands economy begin to recover and how rapidly?
- What are the implications of the recession for the chemical industry?
Scenarios can be tailored to reflect the nature and composition of a bank or building society’s portfolios. As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.
Sustainability and the Environment
The Oxford Economics 'low carbon economy' programme aims to help public and private sector organisations understand the impacts, challenges, and opportunities of the transition to a low carbon economy. The programme combines Oxford Economics' suite of econometric models with the knowledge and expertise of it's economists, researchers and consultants to provide you with a quantitative and evidence-based platform for policy and planning around the low carbon economy.
Over the past decade, Oxford Economics has invested heavily in models and research concerned with the economics of energy and climate change. We have worked closely on the low-carbon economy policy agenda with clients including the Committee on Climate Change, the Office of Climate Change, the Carbon Trust, BERR/DTI, the European Commission- as well as with councils and RDAs across the UK.
Oxford Economics' recent projects under the the 'low carbon economy' programme include a review for the Office of Climate Change of central government's approach to energy modelling in the context of how it may be used to support the Committee on Climate Change; a project for the Carbon trust looking at the economic impact of a range of different policy instruments designed to reduce carbon emissions in the UK and Europe; a study for BERR (BIS) to determine the economic and competitiveness impacts of acheiving the target of 20% of the EU's energy consumption being derived from renewable sources; and the quarterly business and investment conditions survey for the Waste Resources Action Programme (WRAP).
We are working closely with our regional and local government clients, including the Greater Manchester Association of Councils and Regional Development Agencies, to incorporate the low carbon economy agenda-with a particular focus on energy and climate change-into their intelligence gathering, policy development and planning processes.
The Oxford Economics low carbon economy programmeis founded on the belief that the agenda presents places and businesses with a major opportunity to tackle the recession and lay the basis for future economic growth-sustainablegrowth which will generate both economic and environmental dividends in the short-term and long into the future.
(view a more detailed introduction to the programme)
Recent studies include:
- A paper on the costs of the Kyoto Protocol for the International Association for Energy Economics (view study)
- A study gauging the amount of wood waste in the UK and future trends on behalf of Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP), a not-for-profit organisation in the UK (view study)
Thought Leadership
- Oxford Economics - The Next Generation in Thought Leadership - Powerpoint presentation
- Provide economic modeling and scenario analysis for thought leadership studies conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute (view) (view)
- A quarterly industry and economic forecasting service for clients of Northern Bank, part of the Danske Bank group(view)
- Forecasting and modeling input into Accenture's High Performance Business Research (view)
- Creation of the "Aggreko GDP Index" which helps to predict Aggreko's performance by country (view)
- The Economic Eye and Item Club, economic forecasting programs launched by Ernst & Young in conjunction with Oxford Economics (view) (view) (view)
- A web-based analytical tool showing the state-by-state economic and environmental benefits of investments in nuclear energy for the American Council of Global Nuclear Competitiveness(view site)
- A survey of financial firms with operations in the Bahamas to assess the economic benefits of the financial sector for the Bahamas Financial Services Board (view)
- A survey and economic research study into the impact of transit delays on employees and companies in Central London(view)
