International Sectors
Highlights
New Sectoral Outlook Briefing Service
We are publishing new on-line briefings providing detailed forecasts for prospects in over 80 industrial sectors across 77 different countries. The new service provides:
- Forecasts for output growth on an annual basis over the next 10 years for over 80 sectors
- Charts and tables highlighting key industrial output trends, past and future
- Access to our Sectoral Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts to download for your own analysis and reports
- Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Industrial Model
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By how much will output slow?
The key issue for the industrial sector continues to be how negative for manufacturing output are the uncertainties currently hanging over the global economy. The twin shocks of the credit crunch and higher oil and other commodity prices are expected to lead to weaker global growth over the next couple of years than has been seen in the recent past. This is certainly expected to have a knock on impact upon global industrial production. However, the slowdown is by past standards a mild one. Moreover, the slowdown in industrial production is unusually mild. In most cyclical downturns manufacturing output usually falls by much more than the economy as a whole, whereas this time round the slide is much less disproportionate. However, the fact that manufacturing activity is normally particularly vulnerable in a cyclical downturn is a clear signal that forecasts risks are presently skewed to the downside.
27 June 2008
Industrial sector growth is slowing
Manufacturing output growth in the Triad area came to a virtual stand still in the first quarter of 2008. Although there continues to be a marked divergence between falling output in the US and Japan and strong output growth in Western Europe and in Germany in particular. Despite the turbulence that we have seen in the financial sector since last summer our forecast for industrial growth remains relatively optimistic. Growth in both the US and Japan has been weaker than expected and this is reflected in lower forecast for 2008 in those economies than we have had previously. However, this has been partially offset by continued strong growth in Europe and emerging markets and so the overall downward revision to world growth from last time is quite modest. Moreover, world growth is expected to accelerate next year as the US starts to put its troubles behind it and to pick up further over the medium term. Manufacturing output growth in emerging markets slowed last year to around 15% from about 16% in 2006 and a further slowdown is expected to 12.7% this year. This is still of course well above the growth rate in the developed world.
9 June 2008
UK Sectoral Overview: Growth to slow in 2008 with manufacturing disappointing again & services losing momentum
Although GDP growth remained close to trend through to the end of last year, the deterioration in global economic conditions and recent UK housing and financial market developments are together expected to be fully felt this year. Below-trend growth is likely for much of this year, resulting in an increase in GDP of just under 2%. The adverse impact of recent developments is expected to be concentrated in construction and financial services, although all sectors of the economy will see activity and employment growth decelerate to some extent. A much more marked cycle is anticipated in construction as the weakness already evident in residential construction spreads. For financial services, growth is likely to more than halve (given the dislocation persisting in financial markets) and employment to drop, threatening to move below 1mn workers for the first time since the late 1980s.
23 April 2008