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Highlights

Manufacturing upturn begins to moderate?
There is mounting speculation in the last few weeks that the pace of the recovery is slowing. These fears have been fuelled by the crisis in Greece and concerns that this will spill over into other Eurozone economies. However, there is also a growing feeling that the economic data has already started to slow and that we are now past the most rapid phase of the upturn. Moreover these concerns are expressed not merely about the economy as a whole but also about the manufacturing sector. To what extent are these concerns justified? There is certainly quite a lot of evidence that the pace of the rebound in manufacturing is slowing. Moreover this deceleration is not merely in Europe or even just in the developed world but is apparent in emerging markets as well. However, this slowdown in itself is not particularly surprising and in fact was expected in our forecasts. This doesn’t necessarily mean that manufacturing is now likely to dip back into recession. Indeed the most likely outcome is that manufacturing settles down to a slower but more sustainable rate of growth, although it would be wrong to completely dismiss the risks of double dip.
23 July 2010
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Examining Sectoral Growth in the UK
Since early-2008 the world economy has endured its deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Some commentators suggested that the UK was more vulnerable than other countries because of the long-term pattern of change in the sectoral composition of the UK economy. The period since the end of the 1990s recession was characterised by a progressive shift from primary and secondary industries to tertiary sectors. With the economy in the early stages of what is likely to be a particularly challenging recovery, given the need for considerable fiscal retrenchment and high levels of household indebtedness, there are strong arguments for considering the likely future profile of economic growth. The aim of this report is to examine the concept of re-balancing in the UK. This involves firstly establishing what is meant by “re-balancing’ and assessing whether greater balance would be desirable in the UK. It then involves an assessment of how greater balance might be achieved and how the economy might look were a degree of balance realised. This report was commissioned by NESTA who have used our analysis to develop their own policy recommendations: http://www.nesta.org.uk/rebalancing_act
8 June 2010
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Oil price outlook to 2030
Over the next few year, oil demand will still be largely driven by the pace of the world economic recovery but with other factors beginning to play an increasingly important role, including efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the growing importance of gas and increasing use of alternative energy sources such as nuclear and biofuels. Meanwhile, new oil resources are expected to be in more remote and less accessible areas, thereby involving greater exploitation and transportation costs and longer lead times. The medium-term supply and demand trends are expected to result in world oil prices rising by about 2.5% pa in real terms over the period to 2020. In the longer term the pace of demand growth is expected to ease and, as a result, so will the rate of increase in oil prices.
7 June 2010
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Global Industry Forecasts

These in-depth reports probe the latest developments and 10-year trends for nine major global industries and 85 sub-sectors across 68 countries. Every quarter, you will receive historical, current and forecast data on the world's leading industrial and emerging markets, including:

• Output forecasts by sector and detailed sub-sectors on an annual basis over the next 10 years
• Analysis and commentary that examines recent developments and highlights the key trends and drivers, including the links to macroeconomic developments
• Charts and tables spotlighting key industrial output trends, past and future
• Forecasts derived from our highly-disiplined forecasting process using our Global Industry Model