International Sectors
Oxford Economics provides detailed analysis and briefings on developments and prospects across 70 industrial and commercial sectors in over 70 countries. This wealth of sectoral intelligence underpins our advice to clients on their investment, marketing and policy decisions.
Our international sector service includes:
- Forecasts for a wealth of sectoral performance indicators - including output, market size, prices, costs and competitiveness - up to 10 years ahead
- Quarterly forecast updates
- Regular outlook conferences
- Reports setting out clearly the key drivers of sectoral performance globally and highlighting the issues facing sectors in different regions and countries
- Scenario analysis illustrating the implications of the major risks to the global economy for different sectors
- Telephone and email support from our team of economists
In addition, we can provide consultancy advice on a wide range of sectoral issues, including tailored forecasts for detailed product markets and segments; impact assessments of the economic contribution of particular companies or industries; and support in developing marketing and investment plans.
Forecast reports
Our forecast reports provide a concise overview of the key drivers of sectoral economic performance - both macro and micro - and illustrate the implications of the major risks to the global economy affecting different sectors:
- Sector Briefings - on-line briefings providing detailed forecasts for prospects in over 80 industrial sectors across 77 different countries (view sample)
- International Sectoral Prospects - a quarterly report providing an overview of global macroeconomic prospects and detailed analysis of the implications for individual key sectors (view sample)
- International Sectors Monthly Review - graphical presentation of latest data and developments for 7 major sectors (view sample)
- International Sectoral Prospects Monthly Supplement Tables - providing more detailed sectoral performance indicators on a timely basis (view sample)
- Commodity Price Monitor - a monthly report on developments and prospects in energy and other commodity markets (view sample)
Outlook conferences
Our outlook conferences are a highly effective way to keep up-to-date on the major issues facing the global economy and the implications for the performance of key sectors. They provide you with the opportunity to discuss the key risks that could impact on your business with our team, and to interact with peers from a diverse range of organisations.
Our presentations provide a non-technical overview of the analysis underpinning our forecasts. And we encourage a lively debate through Q&A with our senior economists.
Issues addressed at recent events include:
- The sectoral implications of high oil prices
- Can India replicate China's industrial success?
- The impact of low wage economies on the European engineering sector
- Carbon emissions policy: how will it affect sectoral competitiveness?
Forthcoming events:
Wednesday, 4 June 2008 (Paris) ; Covering: International Macro; International Industry;
International Macro & Industrial Outlook Conference
Thursday, 27 November 2008 (Lin Court Conference Centre, London) ; Covering: International Industry;
International Industrial Outlook Conference
(Follow on from Macro Conference 26th Nov)
Presentations from previous conferences
Forecast databank
Our forecast databank provides immediate access to a wealth of economic data, forecasts and analytical tools:
- Sectoral forecasts for over 70 countries and macro forecasts for over 175 economies
- Thousands of series available
- Forecasts up to 10 years ahead
- Historic data available from 1980
- View data/forecasts on-screen or download in spreadsheet format
- On-line graphics and analysis tools
Scenario analysis
Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of global economic scenarios and their implications for different sectors. Our Global Macro and Sectoral Model provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:
- What would be the sectoral implications of oil prices hitting $100 pb?
- How will cutbacks in the US motor industry affect other sectors?
- Which sectors are most sensitive to increases in interest rates?
- How would a revaluation of the Chinese currency affect the competitiveness of western industry?
- Which sectors would be most at risk from an Avian flu epidemic?
As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.
Country coverage
Our sectoral forecasts cover 70 sectors in over 70 countries.
| Countries Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Colombia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong, China Hungary India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea, Rep. Latvia Lithuania Malaysia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russian Fed. Singapore Slovak Republic Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey United Kingdom United States Venezuela, RB Vietnam | Sectors Aerospace Agricultural machinery Agriculture, forestry & fishing Agro-chemicals Basic chemicals Basic metals Castings Chemicals & man-made fibres Clothing & leather goods Coke,petroleum & nuclear fuel Communication services Computers & office equipment Construction Consumer electronics Consumer goods Distribution, hotels & catering Domestic appliances Elec. machinery & apparatus Electric fittings Electrical engineering Electricity, gas & water Electronic engineering Electronics & computers Engineering & metal goods Extraction Financial services FISIM Food, beverages & tobacco Government & community services Gross value added Industrial production Industrial production, inc construction Intermediate goods Investment goods Iron & steel Machine tools Man-made fibres Manufacturing Mechanical engineering Metal products n.e.c Motor vehicle bodies & parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicles & parts Motors etc except for vehicles Motors, generators & transformers Net indirect taxes & statistical discrepancy Non-ferrous metals Non-metallic minerals Other chemicals Other electrical equipment Other general purpose machinery Other manufacturing Other special purpose machinery Other transport equipment Paints, varnishes etc Paper, printing & publishing Pharmaceuticals Precision, medical & optical equipment Radio, TV & communications equipment Real estate, renting & business services Rubber & plastics Semiconductors etc. Services Ships, rolling stock etc Soaps, detergents etc Telecomms equipment Textiles Textiles, leather & clothing Transport services Weapons & ammunition Wood & wood products | Indicators Domestic market size Employment Intermediate cost Investment in equipment Investment in other assets Investment in other structures Investment in residential structures Investment in structures Investment, total Labour cost indicator Labour productivity Output Output (value-added index) Output price Price/cost ratio Production of cars Production of crude steel Production of trucks Registration of new cars Registration of new trucks Self-employment Stock of cars on the road Total costs Wages per person |
Our forecast process
Oxford Economics' forecast process combines detailed bottom-up sectoral analysis by our experienced economists with the rigour and consistency provided by our Global Macro and Sectoral Models.
Our forecast process involves:
- On-going monitoring of developments by our sector economists
- A series of forecast meetings at the start of each quarter to discuss the important news that might change our forecast and to discuss the implications of our latest global macro forecast for sectoral performance
- Sector economists then prepare an initial forecast
- These forecasts are combined and the Oxford Global Macro and Sectoral Model solved to produce a new forecast, taking into account all of the interactions between different sectors (eg through intermediate purchases, competitiveness, cost linkages etc)
- Sector economists review the new forecasts and make modifications reflecting their interpretation of recent data and leading indicators (eg from business surveys)
- The Oxford Global Macro and Sectoral Models are then solved again with a series of iterations towards a new global sectoral forecast
- Senior staff continually review the forecast as it evolves to ensure its consistency
- The forecast is made available to clients on the day it is completed via our website, along with an updated dataset for the Oxford Global Macro and Sectoral Models
Senior International Sector Economists
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| Kiran Ahmed joined Oxford Economics as an Economist in August 2007. She is part of the industry forecasting team and her work on the International Industry Model primarily involves the metals and intermediate goods sectors. Kiran has also been involved in consultancy work including a bespoke project for Airbus, an economic and social impact study for the Corporation of London and a study for the UK Film Council investigating the economic consequences of film tax relief changes.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Kiran worked for three years at CRU, a major metals & mining consultancy, as an analyst in the Aluminium team. During her time there, she contributed to primary aluminium demand analysis and downstream supply & demand analysis for the team’s regular products and was the editor of one of the team’s monthly publications.
Kiran also worked on consultancy projects and contributed to the production of CRU’s macroeconomic forecasts.
Kiran was educated at Kingston University where she obtained a BA(Hons) in Economics and at Nottingham University where she obtained an MSc in Economics.
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| Keith Edmonds is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, working as part of its international industries team, analysing global trends in the motor vehicle and high-tech sectors as well as the tourism sector, whilst also covering macroeconomic trends in Mexico and Chile. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, including the production of detailed Tourism Satellite Accounts, models for particular industries and studies of charity legacy income. He also coordinates Oxford Economics’ annual forecast for the global tourism industry which covers 175 countries. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in June 2001, Keith worked as a professional economist for fifteen years in London, mainly in City investment banks, and was deputy head of research at the Japanese bank Mizuho International (formerly the Industrial Bank of Japan) from 1994-2000 and a senior economist at NatWest Markets (from 1989-94). His primary focus was on forecasting European economic and monetary developments, in particular analysing the development of Europe’s single currency and enlargement projects. Keith was educated in 1979-82 at King’s College, Cambridge, England, where he gained an upper second class degree in Economics; and in 1982-83 at the University of Sussex, England, where he achieved an MA in Development Economics. He then spent 1983-85 working in Uganda’s Ministry of Planning and Economic Development in Kampala and has maintained an interest in Africa subsequently through several vacations there. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Rhys Herbert is a Senior Economist working on the International Industry Service. He is also developing an on-line briefing service on topical economic issues for industrial sectors. He has worked on a number of projects including a study of the UK Aviation. Rhys graduated in Economic History from the LSE in 1983 and then obtained an MSc in Economics from Queen Mary College, University of London. Rhys joined OEF in January 2006. Previously he had worked in both the public and private sectors. After a spell as part of the forecasting team at NIESR, he was employed for many years in the City. He initially worked for a stock broker and then for over 13 years for the investment management arm of Prudential Assurance, latterly as its Chief Economist. Prior to joining OEF Rhys was a Senior Economist at the Office of National Statistics involved in the compilation of GDP data and other official statistics. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Joshua Nava joined Oxford Economics as a Junior Economist in October 2007. He is part of the industry forecasting team and his work on the International Industry Model primarily focuses on Aerospace. Joshua has also been involved in several pieces of consultancy work including looking at the economic impact of the finance sector, finance and business conditions in the recycling and reprocessing sector as well as writing monthly economic briefs for a Regional Development Agency.
Joshua graduated from Nottingham University with a First Class degree in Economics in 2006 before completing an MSc in Economics at the University of Warwick in 2007. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| David Thomas is responsible for analysing and forecasting the chemical and consumer sectors for Oxford Economics' International Industry Service. He is also involved in a wide range of consultancy work for industrial clients and for developing services to meet the needs of this client base. He has lectured extensively to both regular Oxford Economics’ meetings and to external conferences on industrial and economic prospects. He also acts as economic adviser to the Association of Cost Engineers Cost Index Group. David spent thirty five years working for ICI in a wide variety of roles. His early career involved forecasting and planning work for the ICI businesses. There was then a period introducing economic modelling into the company, followed by several years of responsibility for economic forecasting. David ended his ICI service in charge of the Economics function. He left ICI in 1999 bringing with him a significant part of ICI’s economic work and OEF continues to provide services to both ICI and many of its divested businesses. David was educated at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he gained an upper second class degree in Economics, specialising in mathematical economics and operational research. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||