Oxford Economic Models
Highlights
Oxford Economics' Global Macro Model provides a rigorous framework for analysing the impact of alternative scenarios and major threats to economies. For example:
- It suggests that the risks of a downturn in the US housing market triggering a US recession are very small, and that the impacts on the rest of the world are likely to be modest. (read more)
- It suggests that the minimum cost of a global Avian flu pandemic would be $400 billion of lost GDP. But the cost could easily exceed $2 trillion a year. (read more)
- Liberalising trade and reforming the Common Agricultural Policy could raise GDP in the EU by up to 2% over a 10-year period. UK GDP alone would be over £20 billion a year higher - providing total benefits to a typical household of four of £1,500 a year. (read more)
- Increasing trade and investment links with China are generating substantial benefits for the US economy, boosting GDP by about 0.7% by 2010 and reducing prices by 0,8%. Together, these equate to an increase of $1,000 a year in average household real disposable income. (read more)
- The Oxford Model suggests the Hong Kong economy could shrug off the worst effects of some severe economic shocks, including a large renminbi revaluation, a trade war, and on the domestic side, a credit crunch, and financial instability. But in the worst scenario, where China becomes embroiled in a trade war, a total of around 6% points could be lost off growth over two years. (read more)