UK Economy
Oxford Economics provides detailed analysis and briefings on UK economic developments and prospects at a macro, sectoral and regional level. This wealth of economic intelligence underpins our advice to clients as a basis for their investment, marketing and policy decisions.
Our UK services include:
- Forecasts for a wealth of macro, sectoral and regional forecasts for up to 10 years ahead
- Monthly forecast updates for macro indicators
- Regular outlook conferences
- Reports setting out clearly the key drivers of UK economic performance and highlighting the issues facing different sectors and regions
- Scenario analysis illustrating the implications of the major risks to the UK economy and their implications
- Telephone and email support from our team of economists
In addition, we can provide consultancy advice on a wide range of macro, sectoral and regional issues, including providing outsourced economics support to senior management; economic impact assessments and investment appraisals; and detailed work on the housing, energy, and travel and tourism sectors.
Forecast reports
Our forecast reports provide a concise overview of the key drivers of UK economic performance and illustrate the implications of the major risks for business and policy:
- UK Economic Outlook - providing quarterly in-depth analysis of the UK macroeconomy (view sample)
- UK Weekly Brief - high frequency analysis of the latest economic news in the UK (view sample)
- UK Industrial Prospects - analysis of developments and prospects for over 70 industrial sectors, published twice a year (view sample)
- UK Regional Prospects - assessing the outlook for the 12 Government Office Regions, published twice a year (view sample)
- UK Consumer Outlook - providing forecasts for spending on over 50 consumer product areas (view sample)
Outlook conferences
Our outlook conferences are a highly effective way to keep up-to-date on the major issues facing the UK economy. They provide you with the opportunity to discuss the key risks that could impact on your business with our team, and to interact with peers from a diverse rang of organisations.
Our presentations provide a non-technical overview of the analysis underpinning our forecasts. And we encourage a lively debate through Q&A with our senior economists.
Issues addressed at recent events include:
- The implications of high oil prices for the UK economy
- Investment returns in a period of low interest rates
- UK housing market: An international perspective
- The changing structure of the UK economy: How will the balance of payments be financed?
- Carbon emissions policy: How will it affect sectoral competitiveness?
- The importance of migration to regional economic growth
Forthcoming events:
Wednesday, 28 April 2010 (One Great George Street, Westminster, London) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World and UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Friday, 4 June 2010 (Palazzo delle Stelline, Milan) ; Covering: UK Regional Analysis; International Macro;
International Macro & Regional Outlook Briefing
Wednesday, 23 June 2010 (One Great George Street, Westminster, London) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro; Emerging Markets;
World, UK and Emerging Markets Outlook Conference
Thursday, 9 September 2010 (One Great George Street, Westminster, London) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World and UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Thursday, 23 September 2010 (One Great George Street, Westminster, London) ; Covering: UK Industry; UK Regional Analysis; International Industry;
UK Industry & Regional Outlook Conference
Thursday, 11 November 2010 (One Great George Street, Westminster, London) ; Covering: UK Macro;
UK Outlook Conference
Thursday, 18 November 2010 (Sofitel, Arc de Triomphe, Paris) ; Covering: UK Regional Analysis; International Macro;
International Macro & Regional Outlook Briefing
Friday, 19 November 2010 (Hilton Frankfurt) ; Covering: UK Regional Analysis; International Macro;
International Macro & Regional Outlook Briefing
Thursday, 25 November 2010 (Broadwall House, London) ; Covering: UK Industry; International Industry;
International Industrial Outlook Conference
Presentations from previous conferences.
Forecast databank
Our forecast databank provides immediate access to a wealth of economic data, forecasts and analytical tools:
- Detailed macro, sectoral and regional forecasts for the UK, together with a wealth of international data
- Thousands of series available
- Forecasts up to 10 years ahead
- Historic data available from 1980
- View data/forecasts on-screen or download in spreadsheet format
- On-line graphics and analysis tools
Scenario analysis
Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of alternative scenarios and their implications for the UK economy and for different sectors and regions. Our suite of models provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:
- What would be the implications of oil prices hitting $100 pb?
- How would a housing market crash affect different regions?
- Which sectors are most sensitive to increases in interest rates?
- How should the government close its fiscal gap?
- The implications of increased savings for pensions
As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.
Forecast coverage
Our UK macro forecasts cover over 300 indicators. And we provide forecasts for 70 sectors nationally and for the 12 Government Office Regions. In addition, we provide detailed forecasts for consumer spending across 50 categories of goods and services, including projections at a local level:
| UK macro indicators | View sample |
| UK sectors | View sample |
| UK regions | View sample |
| Consumer spending | View sample |
Our forecast process
Oxford Economics' forecasting process combines detailed bottom-up analysis by our experienced economists with the rigour and consistency provided by our suite of Macro, Sectoral and Regional Models.
Our UK forecasts are produced as part of our global forecasting process, which involves:
- On-going monitoring of developments by our team of economists
- A series of forecast meetings at the start of each month (macro)/quarter(sectors) to discuss the important news that might change our forecast and to discuss the implications of our latest global macro forecast for UK performance
- Our economists then prepare an initial forecast
- These forecasts are combined and the Oxford Global Models solved to produce a new world and UK forecast, taking into account all of the interactions between different countries and sectors (eg through trade, exchange rates, intermediate purchases, cost linkages etc)
- Our economists review the new forecasts and make modifications reflecting their interpretation of recent data and leading indicators (eg from business surveys)
- The Oxford Global Model is then solved again with a series of iterations towards a new global and UK forecast
- Senior staff continually review the forecast as it evolves to ensure its consistency
- The forecast is made available to clients on the day it is completed via our website, along with an updated dataset for the Oxford Models
- Our regional forecasts are updated every six months in conjunction with our partner, Regional Forecasts
Senior UK Economists
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| Karen is an Economic Consultant in the regional team and undertakes a broad range of both quantitative and qualitative research, including economic impact assessments, skills research, and scenario analysis. She has particular research interests in skills and employability, the creative industries, tourism and urban economics; she also has a keen interest in the Spanish economy and prepares quarterly reports on Madrid and Barcelona as part of our new European regional briefing service for business executives. Since joining the company after completing her studies at Queen’s University, Belfast, Karen has been involved in a range of consulting projects both in Great Britain and in the north and south of Ireland, including the impacts of public sector relocation, city versus regional development and skills forecasting. An experienced qualitative researcher, Karen has led the stakeholder consultation phase of many of our consultancy projects, leading focus groups and interviews with senior representatives from across the public and private sectors, and managing large-scale business surveys. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Neil Blake is Director of Economic Analysis at Oxford Economics. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Neil was in charge of economic forecasting and consultancy for Experian having previously been a founding director of Business Strategies Ltd. He has also worked for Wharton Econometrics (Global Insight) and the University of East Anglia. He holds degrees from the Universities of York and Warwick.
At Business Strategies and Experian Neil developed a suite of models that include macroeconomic, regional and sub-regional, labour market, local impact, consumer market, property, occupational change, commuting patterns, household formation and demographics. He has also directed Experian Business Strategies European Regional research programme. In earlier work with Wharton Econometrics (WEFA) he also worked on World Modelling systems and foreign exchange forecasts. Current responsibilities include overseeing international regional and industry modeling, UK economic forecasting and input to public sector consultancy.
Altogether, Neil has been involved in economic forecasting for nearly twenty-five years. He has particular interests in the interpretation and use of survey information in economic analysis and in the supply-side analysis of national and regional economies. Dr. Blake has published on a wide range of subjects including economic growth, regional economic modelling, economic history and the use of survey data in economic analysis and forecasting. He was also part of a joint Treasury/DTI/ODPM working group on how to deliver the Government’s Regional Economic Performance Public Service Agreement and has worked on both the Lyons Review on the location of government employment and the Barker Review of the economic effects of restrictions on housing supply and is currently a member of the Department for Community and Local Government’s expert panels on "Neighborhoods, Cities and Regions" and "Housing Market and Planning". ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adrian Cooper is responsible for coordinating and managing Oxford Economics’ global economic analysis, forecasting and consultancy activities, and overseeing its team based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, New York, Philadelphia, Singapore and the UAE. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, ranging from policy advice to government departments in Europe, the US, Africa and Asia to detailed analysis of the economic impact of particular industries and investment proposals.
Adrian spent the first seven years of his career with HM Treasury, England. During this time, he worked on the analysis of tax and other economic policy changes as part of the preparations for the UK Budget. He was also the coordinator of the government's macroeconomic forecast for two years. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 1994, Adrian was UK economist for James Capel & Company, responsible for analysing and forecasting the UK economy for institutional investors, as well as briefing Capel's own traders.
Adrian was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first class degree in Economics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he achieved a distinction in the MSc in Economics and won the Ely Devons prize for outstanding performance in the degree examinations. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Neil Gibson is the director of Oxford Economics’ Regional Services Division, having joined Oxford Economics in January 2007 as part of the merger with Regional Forecasts where he was the Managing Director. In his role he is responsible for Oxford’s regional products which include a full suite of UK and Ireland regional and sub-regional models and a programme of regionally focussed research and consultancy. He leads a team based in Belfast, Oxford and London and is part of Oxford Economics' management team. Neil has particular experience in developing forecast models, delivering evidence based policy advice and providing thought leadership on issues facing regional and sub-regional economies. He is a regular commentator in the press on economic matters and a frequent speaker at conferences and seminars. Recently he has been leading Oxford Economics’ research into urban renaissance and the role and importance of cities in supporting future growth as well as analysing the spatial impacts and potential legacy of the recession. Neil also leads the Oxford Economics' regional model development programme which, amongst other activities, has recently embedded the companies carbon research programme into the regional model and mainstreamed land use and housing forecasts. With expertise on the economic conditions in the UK and Ireland, Neil also contributes to the wider global aspects of Oxford Economics' portfolio of work, feeding into the international forecast team, sectoral teams and a range on thought leadership pieces as well as speaking at the firms' conferences.
Neil graduated in 1999 with a degree in economics from the University of Ulster, Jordanstown. He later obtained an MSc in Computers and Applications from Queen’s University in Belfast in 2001. During this period, Neil worked with the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre (NIERC) who formerly assisted in the production of Oxford Economics’ Regional Economic Outlook where he managed the development of the forecasts for the UK regions. Neil also worked as a Senior Economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
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| Graham will be permanently based in Cambridge from the beginning of March. He has worked closely with OEF on forecasting and consultancy for many years as Director of Regional Forecasts Ltd and recently joined Oxford Economics on the merger of the two companies. He was seconded as Special Adviser to the Northern Ireland First Minister on economic policy from November 1999 -2002. Prior to this, he was the Director of the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre, the office of which he held since the Centre was established in 1985. Before that, he was a Senior Research Officer in the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge and Economics Fellow of Selwyn College, Cambridge. His research specialisms are regional economic policy and forecasting and small firms. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. He has also published widely on economic development issues in Northern Ireland. He has recently been involved in developing local forecast models for a number of UK urban areas including Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow and Belfast. This work has entailed development of detailed local forecasting models which cover housing variables in addition to economic variables. Advising local government on urban policy to support economic growth is currently a major straw in Graham’s work in Regional Forecasts. He has been advisor to the House of Commons NI Affairs Committee, a member of the Labour Party Commission on the Future of Regional Policy in England, a member of the CBI Corporate affairs Committee in Northern Ireland and a member of the Executive Committee of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in Dublin. He was a member of the NIERC Board from 2002-4, and is currently a member of the Board of the Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland (ERINI). Graham graduated from the University of London in 1968 with a first class degree in geography. After which he also obtained a PhD from the University of Leicester (1974) and degree in mathematics with the Open University (1978). ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Graeme Harrison is a Lead Consultant in the Regional Services Division of Oxford Economics. He leads the All-Island consultancy services (north and south of Ireland), as well as a range of consultancy projects on behalf of public bodies and private organisations in GB. Graeme has also been involved in Oxford Economics’ international consultancy projects, including for the Libyan National Economic Development Board. Graeme’s work ranges from extensive economic modelling, analysis and forecasting to providing guidance in the area of policy planning. Recent major projects Graeme has led / is currently involved in include: London future skill needs; the economic, skills and labour market impact of migration in Northern Ireland; Citi-Scope model for the Ilex Regeneration Plan, and research into international productivity lessons. Graeme has also lead several consultancy projects for the World Bank and DfID in Uganda, most recently undertaking a public expenditure review of the conflict-affected Northern region, and has provided technical macroeconomic advisory services to the Ugandan Ministry of Finance.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Graeme spent 2 years as a Senior Economist working for the Ugandan Ministry of Finance through the distinguished Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Fellowship Programme. Graeme graduated from Queen’s University in 2002 with a first class honours degree in finance and received the Financial Times award for outstanding performance in degree examinations. He later obtained an MSc with distinction, also from Queen’s. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Kerry Houston is the Head of Regional Model Development in the Regional Services Division of Oxford Economics. She heads Oxfords regional and local forecasting team as well as a range of consultancy projects. As Head of Model Development, Kerry has overall responsibility for forecasting and monitoring the UK's regional economies. She co-authors and manages the Regional Economic Outlook report which presents the regional outlooks alongside some analysis. Kerry is a specialist in developing local forecasting models and has taken a lead role in designing local forecast models for a range of local areas including Manchester, Telford, Oldham and Rochdale, the West of Scotland and the Black Country. Kerry is an expert in regional statistics and methods and has lead responsibility for ensuring the accuracy, consistency and appropriateness of data for each project. Kerry is adept at using a wide range of statistical and econometric packages and has considerable experience in developing be-spoke technical solutions to forecasting and analysis issues. Further to this Kerry has a wealth of experience in scenario analysis. Kerry also has taken the lead responsibility on a number of private and public sector consultancy projects including a quarterly forecasts for the Northern Bank, the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model, and Economic Reviews for Scottish Enterprise.
Kerry has recently completed a Post-graduate Diploma in Applied Economics and is currently undertaking a MSC in Applied Economics. Prior to this, Kerry gained a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Ulster. As an undergraduate, Kerry worked within the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre as a research assistant where she provided assistance for the development of the forecasts for the Regional Economic Outlook, and various other economic studies. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate OE's global macroeconomic view including writing for and helping edit OE's regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and specific forecast interests in the the Japanese, Swedish and Danish economies. He is also involved in Oxford Economics' work on a variety of consultancy projects.
Before joining Oxford Economics, he spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analyzing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised world. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers.
Adam gained a first class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Alan Wilson is a director in Oxford Economics' consultancy division, having joined OEF in 1996, prior to which he was an economic adviser in the Treasury. He leads a range of consultancy projects for commercial companies and government departments. He also oversees Oxford Economics' regional forecasts, and takes an active role in Oxford's macroeconomic forecasting. Recent major projects Alan has been involved with include studies of the impact of aviation on the UK and global economies; producing simulated Tourism Satellite Accounts showing the importance of tourism to 175 economies around the world on behalf of the World Travel & Tourism Council; modelling the interactions between economic activity, migration and housing in Manchester and Salford; and looking at London’s place in the UK economy. Alan graduated from Cambridge University in economics in 1983, and later obtained an MSc with distinction from Birkbeck College, London. Before joining Oxford Economics he spent 12½ years in the Government Economic Service working for a number of departments on a wide range of economic issues. These included 3 years at the Office of Fair Trading advising on competition policy issues, a similar period at the Treasury working on tax policy issues; 2 years at the Treasury forecasting inflation; and finally a year co-ordinating the Treasury's macroeconomic forecasts. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||