UK Economy
Oxford Economics provides detailed analysis and briefings on UK economic developments and prospects at a macro, sectoral and regional level. This wealth of economic intelligence underpins our advice to clients as a basis for their investment, marketing and policy decisions.
Our UK services include:
- Forecasts for a wealth of macro, sectoral and regional forecasts for up to 10 years ahead
- Monthly forecast updates for macro indicators
- Regular outlook conferences
- Reports setting out clearly the key drivers of UK economic performance and highlighting the issues facing different sectors and regions
- Scenario analysis illustrating the implications of the major risks to the UK economy and their implications
- Telephone and email support from our team of economists
In addition, we can provide consultancy advice on a wide range of macro, sectoral and regional issues, including providing outsourced economics support to senior management; economic impact assessments and investment appraisals; and detailed work on the housing, energy, and travel and tourism sectors.
Forecast reports
Our forecast reports provide a concise overview of the key drivers of UK economic performance and illustrate the implications of the major risks for business and policy:
- UK Economic Outlook - providing quarterly in-depth analysis of the UK macroeconomy (view sample)
- UK Weekly Brief - high frequency analysis of the latest economic news in the UK (view sample)
- UK Industrial Prospects - analysis of developments and prospects for over 70 industrial sectors, published twice a year (view sample)
- UK Regional Prospects - assessing the outlook for the 12 Government Office Regions, published twice a year (view sample)
- UK Consumer Outlook - providing forecasts for spending on over 50 consumer product areas (view sample)
Outlook conferences
Our outlook conferences are a highly effective way to keep up-to-date on the major issues facing the UK economy. They provide you with the opportunity to discuss the key risks that could impact on your business with our team, and to interact with peers from a diverse rang of organisations.
Our presentations provide a non-technical overview of the analysis underpinning our forecasts. And we encourage a lively debate through Q&A with our senior economists.
Issues addressed at recent events include:
- The implications of high oil prices for the UK economy
- Investment returns in a period of low interest rates
- UK housing market: An international perspective
- The changing structure of the UK economy: How will the balance of payments be financed?
- Carbon emissions policy: How will it affect sectoral competitiveness?
- The importance of migration to regional economic growth
Forthcoming events:
Wednesday, 17 September 2008 (Lion Court Conference Centre, London) ; Covering: International Macro; UK Macro;
World & UK Economic Outlook Briefing
Thursday, 25 September 2008 (Lion Court Conference Centre, London) ; Covering: UK Industry; UK Regional Analysis;
UK Industry & Regional Outlook Conference
Presentations from previous conferences.
Forecast databank
Our forecast databank provides immediate access to a wealth of economic data, forecasts and analytical tools:
- Detailed macro, sectoral and regional forecasts for the UK, together with a wealth of international data
- Thousands of series available
- Forecasts up to 10 years ahead
- Historic data available from 1980
- View data/forecasts on-screen or download in spreadsheet format
- On-line graphics and analysis tools
Scenario analysis
Oxford Economics is uniquely placed to provide rigorous, quantitative analysis of alternative scenarios and their implications for the UK economy and for different sectors and regions. Our suite of models provides the ideal framework in which we can explore issues such as:
- What would be the implications of oil prices hitting $100 pb?
- How would a housing market crash affect different regions?
- Which sectors are most sensitive to increases in interest rates?
- How should the government close its fiscal gap?
- The implications of increased savings for pensions
As well as advising on the implications of such risks and their likelihood, we are also able to offer tailored advice on their implications for your markets and your business.
Forecast coverage
Our UK macro forecasts cover over 300 indicators. And we provide forecasts for 70 sectors nationally and for the 12 Government Office Regions. In addition, we provide detailed forecasts for consumer spending across 50 categories of goods and services, including projections at a local level:
| UK macro indicators | View sample |
| UK sectors | View sample |
| UK regions | View sample |
| Consumer spending | View sample |
Our forecast process
Oxford Economics' forecasting process combines detailed bottom-up analysis by our experienced economists with the rigour and consistency provided by our suite of Macro, Sectoral and Regional Models.
Our UK forecasts are produced as part of our global forecasting process, which involves:
- On-going monitoring of developments by our team of economists
- A series of forecast meetings at the start of each month (macro)/quarter(sectors) to discuss the important news that might change our forecast and to discuss the implications of our latest global macro forecast for UK performance
- Our economists then prepare an initial forecast
- These forecasts are combined and the Oxford Global Models solved to produce a new world and UK forecast, taking into account all of the interactions between different countries and sectors (eg through trade, exchange rates, intermediate purchases, cost linkages etc)
- Our economists review the new forecasts and make modifications reflecting their interpretation of recent data and leading indicators (eg from business surveys)
- The Oxford Global Model is then solved again with a series of iterations towards a new global and UK forecast
- Senior staff continually review the forecast as it evolves to ensure its consistency
- The forecast is made available to clients on the day it is completed via our website, along with an updated dataset for the Oxford Models
- Our regional forecasts are updated every six months in conjunction with our partner, Regional Forecasts
Senior UK Economists
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| Karen Barklie is an Assistant Economist in the Regional Division of Oxford Economics. Since joining the company in September 2007, Karen has worked with the qualitative team by collecting and preparing data for modelling outputs and gathering information for use in qualitative projects. She also helped with the qualitative research for a project on behalf of North Down Borough Council, a Case for City Region Development, by conducting local business interviews and helping with the analysis of the commuter survey. More recently she has been involved in conducting an audit of public sector employment within the Down District and running scenario impact analysis. She also helps with the monthly update of Oxford Economics’ Yorkshire Forward job announcement database.
Karen graduated from Queen’s University, Belfast in July 2007 with a Bachelor of Science, First Class Honours Degree, in Economics with Spanish. She also spent a year of study in Spain, completing an International Programme of Spanish Studies, consisting of both a language and business component, in conjunction with the University of Malaga. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adrian Cooper is responsible for coordinating and managing Oxford Economics’ global economic analysis, forecasting and consultancy activities, and overseeing its team of economists based in Oxford, London and Philadelphia. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, ranging from policy advice to government departments in Europe, Africa and Asia to detailed analysis of the economic impact of particular industries and investment proposals. Adrian also heads up Oxford Economics’ detailed forecasting work on the UK economy. Adrian spent the first seven years of his career with HM Treasury, England. During this time, he worked on the analysis of tax and other economic policy changes as part of the preparations for the UK Budget. He was also the coordinator of the government's macroeconomic forecast for two years. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 1994, Adrian was UK economist for James Capel & Company, responsible for analysing and forecasting the UK economy for institutional investors, as well as briefing Capel's own traders. Adrian was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first class degree in Economics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he achieved a distinction in the MSc in Economics and won the Ely Devons prize for outstanding performance in the degree examinations. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Neil Gibson is the director of Oxford Economics’ Regional Services Division, having joined Oxford Economics in January 2007 as part of the merger with Regional Forecasts where he was the Managing Director. In his role he is responsible for Oxford’s regional products which include the bi-annual Regional Economic Outlook and a range of be-spoke local models for areas such as Greater Manchester, the Black Country and West of Scotland. He works closely with Alan Wilson and Sam Moore at Oxford to provide a senior team focussed on regional matters. Neil has managed a number of high profile project both during his time with Oxford / Regional Forecasts and previously as a senior economist in PricewaterhouseCoopers. He has particular experience in developing forecast models, delivering evidence based policy advice and providing thought leadership on issues facing regional and sub-regional economies. He is a regular commentator in the Northern Ireland press on economic matters a contributor to the annual Regional Economic Conference. Recently he has been leading Oxford Economics’ research into urban renaissance and the role and importance of cities in supporting future growth. Coupled with this has been the development of unique housing forecast models which link economic / demographic projections and the housing market in a comprehensive empirical way. Other areas of specialism include analysis relating to the impact of the shift towards the service sector economy and the issues facing businesses and economies resulting from the recent rise in migrant levels. Neil graduated in 1999 with a degree in economics from the University of Ulster, Jordanstown. He later obtained an MSc in Computers and Applications from Queen’s University in Belfast in 2001. During this period, Neil worked with the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre (NIERC) who formerly assisted in the production of Oxford Economics’ Regional Economic Outlook where he managed the development of the forecasts for the UK regions. Neil also worked as a Senior Economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers where he co-ordinated various consultancy projects including the annual review of the Northern Ireland economy. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Graham will be permanently based in Cambridge from the beginning of March. He has worked closely with OEF on forecasting and consultancy for many years as Director of Regional Forecasts Ltd and recently joined Oxford Economics on the merger of the two companies. He was seconded as Special Adviser to the Northern Ireland First Minister on economic policy from November 1999 -2002. Prior to this, he was the Director of the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre, the office of which he held since the Centre was established in 1985. Before that, he was a Senior Research Officer in the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge and Economics Fellow of Selwyn College, Cambridge. His research specialisms are regional economic policy and forecasting and small firms. He is the author of a large number of books, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms. He has also published widely on economic development issues in Northern Ireland. He has recently been involved in developing local forecast models for a number of UK urban areas including Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow and Belfast. This work has entailed development of detailed local forecasting models which cover housing variables in addition to economic variables. Advising local government on urban policy to support economic growth is currently a major straw in Graham’s work in Regional Forecasts. He has been advisor to the House of Commons NI Affairs Committee, a member of the Labour Party Commission on the Future of Regional Policy in England, a member of the CBI Corporate affairs Committee in Northern Ireland and a member of the Executive Committee of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in Dublin. He was a member of the NIERC Board from 2002-4, and is currently a member of the Board of the Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland (ERINI). Graham graduated from the University of London in 1968 with a first class degree in geography. After which he also obtained a PhD from the University of Leicester (1974) and degree in mathematics with the Open University (1978). ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Graeme Harrison is a Senior Economist in the Regional Division of Oxford Economics. He leads a range of consultancy projects on behalf of public bodies in GB and NI. This work ranges from extensive economic analysis and forecasting to providing guidance in the area of policy planning. Recent major projects Graeme has been involved with include an economic impact assessment of the Black Country Spatial Strategy; research into reversing population decline across UK cities; and setting district council targets for Invest Northern Ireland’s Start-A-Business Programme. He has also lead several consultancy projects for the World Bank and DfID in Uganda, most recently undertaking a public expenditure review of the conflict-affected Northern region, and has provided technical macroeconomic advisory services to the Ugandan Ministry of Finance. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Graeme spent 2 years as a Senior Economist working for the Ugandan Ministry of Finance through the distinguished Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Fellowship Programme. He established the Real Sector Division in the Macroeconomic Policy Department developing the Ministry’s first GDP forecasting model. Graeme graduated from Queen’s University in 2002 with a first class honours degree in finance and received the Financial Times award for outstanding performance in degree examinations. He later obtained an MSc with distinction, also from Queen’s. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Kerry Hazley is the Head of Regional and Local Model Development, having joined Oxford Economics in January 2007, prior to which she was data manager at Regional Forecasts Ltd. As Head of Model Development, Kerry has overall responsibility for developing and maintaining the Oxford Economics’ Regional Model. The forecasts produced from the model along with regional analysis are published in the bi-annual Regional Economic Outlook, which Kerry also co-authors and manages. Kerry is a specialist in developing local forecasting models and has taken a lead role in designing local forecast models for a range of local areas including Manchester, Telford, Oldham and Rochdale, the West of Scotland and the Black Country. Kerry is an expert in regional statistics and methods and has lead responsibility for ensuring the accuracy, consistency and appropriateness of data for each project. Kerry is adept at using a wide range of statistical and econometric packages and has considerable experience in developing be-spoke technical solutions to forecasting and analysis issues. Kerry also has taken the lead responsibility on a number of private sector consultancy projects including a review of house price inflation for the Northern Bank. Kerry has recently completed a Post-graduate Diploma in Applied Economics and is currently undertaking a MSC in Applied Economics. Prior to this, Kerry gained a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Ulster. As an undergraduate, Kerry worked within the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre as a research assistant where she provided assistance for the development of the forecasts for the Regional Economic Outlook, and various other economic studies. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Andrew Murray is an economist with Oxford Economics’ Regional Division. In his time in the Regional Division, Andrew has worked on various projects ranging from assisting in the development of the Belfast skills forecasting model, to producing extensive economic profiling of district council and sub-district council areas. Andrew specialises in quantitative analysis and has developed an in-depth knowledge of sub-regional and neighbourhood statistics in NI. Recently Andrew has been involved with several economic profiling projects, for district councils in Northern Ireland, including Down, Newry and Mourne and North Down. Andrew has worked on various projects included producing a case for city-region development and creating an investment profile for North Down, promoting retail and call centre investment in Down and producing an economic profile for the SEED economic development strategy. Andrew has recently commenced a project assessing the economic cost of crime in Northern Ireland for the NIO to be completed in early 2008. Andrew also contributes to the development of the ongoing bi-annual Regional Economic Outlook and regional chapter writing. Andrew graduated from Queen’s University in 2006 with a honours degree in economics. He has obtained a diploma in finance from Queens in 2007 and is due to obtain an MSc in Finance, also from Queen’s in 2008. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Katrina Paterson joined Oxford Economics in May 2007. Previous to working with Oxford Economics Katrina worked as an Economic Consultant for Urban Economics Australia. Urban Economics is a specialist economic and market research consultancy based in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. They have developed extensive research and forecast analysis for the residential, commercial, retail, industrial, tourist and hospitality sectors throughout Australia and New Zealand. During her time at Urban Economics Katrina specialised in regional statistical analysis, tourism economics, consumer behaviour and qualitative market research. Katrina recently obtained her economics honours degree from Queensland University of Technology, basing her research report on ‘Economic Growth Theory and the Development of the Polish Economy’. Her addition to Oxford Economics is to add an international perspective on regional models and forecasts, tourism expertise and to provide an important addition to the Oxford Economics qualitative team. In particular, prior to arriving at Oxford Economics Katrina worked on several key tourism projects in Australia developing tourism forecasts, branding strategies and action plans for city councils and private corporations. This also included presenting key results and providing actionable tourism advice for clients. Katrina has most recently been involved in several key projects including a Lisburn Socioeconomic Profiling report; Down District Council retail and call centre assessment; Northern Ireland forecasting and economic analysis of the tourist sector and a Belfast City Council Skills strategy, including an intense qualitative phase interviewing key Belfast employers, academics and government bodies. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adam Slater is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate OE's global macroeconomic view including writing for and helping edit OE's regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and specific forecast interests in the the Japanese, Swedish and Danish economies. He is also involved in Oxford Economics' work on a variety of consultancy projects.
Before joining Oxford Economics, he spent more than ten years working as an economist and strategist in the City of London for Nomura, Rabobank and Calyon. During this period, he was responsible for analyzing a wide variety of economies in both the developing and the industrialised world. He also covered financial market developments, including developments in currency and bond markets, and worked directly with traders and salespeople to elaborate strategies for use internally and for dissemination to customers.
Adam gained a first class degree in Economics from the University of Bath and also holds an MPhil from Cambridge University. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Alan Wilson is a director in Oxford Economics' consultancy division, having joined OEF in 1996, prior to which he was an economic adviser in the Treasury. He leads a range of consultancy projects for commercial companies and government departments. He also oversees Oxford Economics' regional forecasts, and takes an active role in Oxford's macroeconomic forecasting. Recent major projects Alan has been involved with include studies of the impact of aviation on the UK and global economies; producing simulated Tourism Satellite Accounts showing the importance of tourism to 175 economies around the world on behalf of the World Travel & Tourism Council; modelling the interactions between economic activity, migration and housing in Manchester and Salford; and looking at London’s place in the UK economy. Alan graduated from Cambridge University in economics in 1983, and later obtained an MSc with distinction from Birkbeck College, London. Before joining Oxford Economics he spent 12½ years in the Government Economic Service working for a number of departments on a wide range of economic issues. These included 3 years at the Office of Fair Trading advising on competition policy issues, a similar period at the Treasury working on tax policy issues; 2 years at the Treasury forecasting inflation; and finally a year co-ordinating the Treasury's macroeconomic forecasts. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||