The Mission of Tourism Economics
Tourism is a proven, growing economic catalyst. But to capitalize on the ascent of tourism, investors, destinations and governments alike must understand the economic value, drivers, and risks intrinsic to the business.
Tourism Economics is a subsidiary of Oxford Economics with a singular objective: Translate rigorous economic analysis and a deep understanding of tourism dynamics into practical direction for our clients.
To each of our client engagements, we bring senior staff, Oxford Economics' renowned economic models, and 25 years experience providing analysis for better decisions. Whether these decisions involve capital investment, market strategy, or policies, our grounded perspectives elevate our clients' objectives.
Tourism Market Strategy
The Tourism Economics team has spent the last decade tracking the relationships between economic trends, tourism supply, and actual tourism demand. To assess our clients' market opportunities, we evaluate market share, economic growth, demographic shifts, traveler preferences, advertising response rate, high frequency leading indicators, pricing, industry costs, and risk factors.
Our (and your) competitive advantage is the application of Oxford Economics' renowned models for over 170 countries to predict tourism activity. These tourism models produce concise, actionable market metrics including:
- Market size and share
- Visitor preferences
- Predictive economic indicators
- Risks
- Competitive threats
- Market potential indices
Tourism Economics then offers our clients tailored recommendations on how best to capitalize on opportunities and control risks for the most relevant traveler and geographic segments.
Project Feasibility Analysis
Tourism Economics' ongoing analysis of tourism flows and economic dynamics provides a foundation for project feasibility analysis. Our quantitative approach answers key questions-will the market support a proposed tourism attraction or facility? What does a reasonable scenario of market demand imply for cash flow, profitability, and return on investment? What is the competitive market?
We have conducted this analysis for resorts, condominium hotels, sports events, museums, and retail centers in the US, Caribbean, and Middle East to secure financing, gain government approvals, and adjust development scopes.
Tourism Economic Impact
The economic importance of tourism to a destination is commonly underappreciated and extends well beyond core hospitality and transportation sectors. Tourism Economics offers a solution to destination marketing organizations (DMOs) and to industry associations that marries rigorous methodology and compelling communication to raise the profile of tourism as an economic engine.
Our approach combines visitor survey and industry data to provide maximum credibility and to ensure no component of tourism activity is overlooked.
Tourism Economics' impact models also capture the critical secondary benefits to the tourism supply chain and the economic gains through the local spending of tourism wages.
This provides a comprehensive view of tourism-generated sales, production, employment, wages, and taxes. But the best research is only as good as its communication. Our clients enjoy a presentation style of clear and compelling narrative, charts, tables, and maps. In this way, the message of tourism's importance is clearly conveyed and our clients' objectives are realized.
Our staff has completed nearly one hundred tourism economic impact studies for cities, states, regions, and countries across the world. We have also assessed the impacts of particular sectors such as aviation, film, and cruising.
| A comprehensive approach incorporates the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) system approved by the UN as the global standard for measuring the economic value of tourism. Our staff has implemented Tourism Satellite Account research for over two-dozen clients over the past decade, significantly raising the profile and understanding of tourism's role in the economy. | 
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Recent examples of tourism satellite accounts: |
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| Forecasts: See forecasts for tourism in 175 countries | |||||
Project Economic Impact
A visitor attraction-whether it be a new resort, a sports event, or a museum-can deliver substantial economic benefits to a local economy. Tourism Economics measures the value of these benefits for developers and governments considering public-private partnerships.
Our analysis weighs the direct and indirect economic impacts of the project in terms of visits, spending, jobs, wages, local production, and taxes and compares this to proposed tax abatements or other government subsidies.
| On this basis, developers are able to secure favorable terms and governments are able to make responsible economic development decisions. We deliver not only economic impact analysis, but credibility and support in discussions between developers and public officials. Using this holistic approach, our staff has helped forge agreements on billions of dollars of tourism investment. |
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Tourism Forecasting
Invest in growth markets. This is a simple axiom that necessitates market forecasts. Our tourism economists have developed forecasting models to predict travel demand for every major global market and particular traveler segments. More important, these models have established proven track records for accuracy. The reason is straightforward; our models are firmly-rooted in the economic fundamentals of origin markets along with the changing dynamics of the tourism industry and traveler preferences.
| We have built rigorous tourism forecasting models for clients in the US, Caribbean, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The purpose of these models is to identify short and long term growth opportunities, enabling our clients to invest in expanding markets. | 
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Tourism Policy Analysis
Government policies can have a dramatic effect on the tourism sector. The great destination success stories invariably include a government committed to policies which foster tourism development.
Tourism Economics assesses a destination's tourism policy drawing from a host of experiences and international best practices. Our approach is decidedly empirical, evaluating the real returns to the economy of particular policy options.
Our analysis provides governments with the insight to make wise economic policy decisions.
Among the questions we help answer are:
- How will increasing entry restrictions affect tourism?
- What are the economic benefits and costs of legalized gaming?
- How will an increased occupancy tax impact visitor demand, the economy, and the tax base?
- How can we attract tourism investment?
- What will happen if we raise or lower our tourism marketing spending?
- How can we implement public-private partnerships?
Tourism Economists
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| Pablo has been a senior economist at Oxford Economics since 2001, working as part of the macroeconomic team. He is responsible for the analysis and forecast of the Latin American economies. Pablo has also been managing a series of consultancy projects related to the tourist sector, including the development Tourism Satellite Accounts for a number of countries and regions. He is co-creator of the Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OxLAD), a comprehensive dataset covering twenty countries in the region for the period 1900-2000. Pablo has a D.Phil. in Economics and a M.Sc. in Development Economics from the University of Oxford. He also has an undergraduate degree in System Engineering from the Universidad de los Andes, Venezuela. Before joining OEF he was research fellow at St. Antony’s College, Oxford, where he worked on issues related to developing countries. He is fluent in English and Spanish and has an intermediate level of Portuguese. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Keith Edmonds is a senior economist at Oxford Economics, working as part of its international industries team, analysing global trends in the motor vehicle and high-tech sectors as well as the tourism sector, whilst also covering macroeconomic trends in Mexico and Chile. He has led Oxford Economics’ work on a wide array of consultancy projects, including the production of detailed Tourism Satellite Accounts, models for particular industries and studies of charity legacy income. He also coordinates Oxford Economics’ annual forecast for the global tourism industry which covers 175 countries. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in June 2001, Keith worked as a professional economist for fifteen years in London, mainly in City investment banks, and was deputy head of research at the Japanese bank Mizuho International (formerly the Industrial Bank of Japan) from 1994-2000 and a senior economist at NatWest Markets (from 1989-94). His primary focus was on forecasting European economic and monetary developments, in particular analysing the development of Europe’s single currency and enlargement projects. Keith was educated in 1979-82 at King’s College, Cambridge, England, where he gained an upper second class degree in Economics; and in 1982-83 at the University of Sussex, England, where he achieved an MA in Development Economics. He then spent 1983-85 working in Uganda’s Ministry of Planning and Economic Development in Kampala and has maintained an interest in Africa subsequently through several vacations there. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| David Goodger is a senior economist within Oxford Economics’ Tourism Economics division, and is primarily responsible for developing and maintaining the global model of tourism flows and spending covering around 175 origins and destinations. He also takes an active role in consultancy work and has recently contributed to projects to help destinations in identifying key origin markets. Since joining Oxford Economics in 2000, David Goodger has been involved in the full range of forecasting and modelling activities. He has worked within both the macroeconomic and industrial forecasting teams, contributing to regular reports as well as client specific studies and ongoing model development. More recently David has worked within the consultancy division, with an emphasis on the energy sector and analysis of carbon abatement policies. David was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first class degree in Economics with Statistics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he graduated with an MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||
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| Adam Sacks is the founder and Managing Director of Oxford Economics’ Tourism Economics division. Adam came to Oxford Economics from Global Insight, where he began its travel & tourism consulting practice. Adam has worked with over fifty tourism offices throughout the world. He has advised destinations on tourism investment policy, entry procedures, tourism taxation, and marketing strategies. He has provided destinations with analysis on market positioning and emerging opportunities. Adam is an authority on measuring the economic impact of tourism activity and has implemented the UN-methodology for measuring the tourism (Tourism Satellite Accounts) for over twenty destinations. Adam has consulted with multi-national hotel chains, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, theme parks, resort developers, and retail operators to measure current and future market opportunities. He has presented to numerous corporate strategic planning teams on the threats and opportunities facing their businesses within the projected travel and economic climate. He is experienced in developing custom systems for quantifying tourism market segment opportunities and has developed tourism forecasting models with exceptional track records. Adam is a regular conference speaker on issues related to tourism market analysis, the economic impact of tourism and travel-demand forecasting. ........................................................................................................ | |||||||||||