Designed and delivered by a joint venture between Oxford Economics and Control Risks, the global risk consultancy specialising in political, integrity and security risk, EPRE employs advanced visualisation tools and can be customised to fit an organisation’s own risk profile.
To help you anticipate and deal with emerging risks, the service provides comparable country risk rankings and profiles for each country by analysing 11 political, economic, business, and security factors, as well as access to a rich portfolio of research tools, including research briefings and alerts on emerging issues, country forecast reports, event-driven political, operational and regulatory analysis, and a wealth of historical and forecast economic data for more than 200 countries.
What the service provides
- A combined view of economic and political risk for 164 countries. Rankings weigh 11 key political, economic, business and security factors for each country, with a full explanation of drivers for each factor
- Custom risk rankings. The tool allows you to adjust the weighting for individual risk factors or countries to fit your organisation’s risk profile.
- Advanced visualisation. The service is easy to navigate and calibrate, with the ability to compare countries, create portfolios, or view scores on an interactive map. Charts and graphs can be quickly exported.
- Economic and political forecast. Assessment of trends looking five years ahead, with analysis of political and economic policy.
- Economic reports, briefings, and data. To provide background and context, the service includes access to all Country Economic Forecasts and the Global Economic Databank, providing analysis and forecast data for 200 countries, as well as Research Briefings briefings on latest developments and scenarios.
- Political, regulatory, and operational analysis. Further analysis of events around the world from Control Risks’ network of analysts, drawing on Country Risk Forecasts and PRIME helps you understand the impact political and operational issues in more than 200 countries.
How we measure risk
Using our own risk model, Control Risks and Oxford Economics analysts rate a series of political and economic risk factors for each country. Each political and economic rating is also assigned a default weight based on its significance in the country context and its potential impact on business.
Clients are given the opportunity to modify these weightings in EPRE’s customisation feature. The individual political and economic risk variables are combined weighting their overall political and economic risk ratings, and then combined to produce an overall risk score for every country. Country risk ratings are supported by comprehensive descriptions, core metrics, and data.
The service covers 11 variables that are the most relevant for assessing political and economic risk:
Economic and financial
- Sovereign: risk that a government will default on its debt
- Exchange rate: risk of a significant movement in the exchange rate.
- Trade credit: risk that a trading partner will not pay its obligation.
- Political stability: the stability of the current government and the overall political system.
- Ideology and policy: ideological and policy orientation of the current and future government.
- International relations: with neighbours, trade partners and the international community.
Business and market
- Business environment: risks relating to the influence of societal and structural factors on business activity, including state and non-state actions.
- Operating cost: risk that operating costs rise faster than recent trends.
- Market demand: risk that market demand could be significantly different to recent trends.
Security and social cohesion
- Security environment: outlook for the domestic security environment - encompassing war, crime, violent unrest, terrorism, insurgency and other security issues.
- Social cohesion: outlook for social stability, the prospect of social unrest and the significance of socio- cultural issues to policymaking.